Said the Journal:
From 1987 to 2003, Prof. Tetlock coaxed 284 political experts of all stripes -- academics, journalists and think-tankers from across the political spectrum -- to make specific, verifiable forecasts. He looked at more than 27,000 predictions in all . . . What he found is that people with expertise in explaining events that have happened aren't very successful at predicting what will happen.
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