Iraq War: Not Over By A Looong Shot

April 2008: Child is removed from Sadr City rubble after U.S. air strike

How big a mess is President Bush leaving Barack Obama in Iraq? Plenty big, according to the estimable Thomas Ricks, the WaPo military writer, blogger and author of Fiasco, one of the best books on The Forever War:

"Obama's first year in Iraq is going to be tougher than Bush's last year. Three reasons for that: First, three rounds of elections are scheduled in 2009, and those tend to be violent in Iraq. Second, the easy U.S. troop withdrawals have been made, and the pullouts at the end of this year will be riskier. Finally, none of the basic existential problems facing Iraq have been answered-the power relationships between groups, leadership of the Shiites, the sharing of oil revenue, the status of the disputed city of Kirkuk, to name just the most pressing ones. Compounding the problem will be the incorrect perception of many Americans that the Iraq was all but over when Obama took office.

Despite the conventional wisdom that the war is nearly over, Obama's war in Iraq may last longer than Bush's, which clocks in at a robust 5 years and 10 months. "So now you back in the trap--just that, trapped," to quote Big Boi and Dre. My best guess is that we will have at least 35,000 troops there in 2015, as Obama's likely second term is winding down."

It's not all doom and gloom, however, The commander of U.S. forces has lifted the ban on beer. GIs will be able to down two, but only on Super Bowl night.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan is going . . . going . . . nearly gone.

Photograph by Kareem Raheem/Reuters