The American End Game In Iraq Begins: Praying For A Whimper, Fearing A Bang

Iraqi honor guards parade in celebration of U.S. big-city pullout

The first thing that I'm going to note about the pullout this week of U.S. troops from major cities in Iraq is that I don't know exactly what will happen next, but none of it is likely to be good.

I do know that this important first step in the drawdown of Americans, a process that is supposed to be completed for combat troops by August 31, 2010 and all troops by December 31, 2011, will not hasten political reconciliation now, later or ever, while the unraveling that has been evident since the throat-clearing of the Surge will continue.

I do know that the Iraqi army and security forces, many of the latter reliably corrupt, are not prepared now but may be later. And that as it is, not all Americans will be leaving the cities. Some will be embedded with Iraqi units for training purposes and have their own U.S. troops as protectors, while the troops formerly based in Baghdad have redeployed to Camp Victory, which is a mere 10-minute helicopter ride from the capital.

I do know that the biggest immediate question is whether there be a spike in violence as some people fear, including a goodly number of Iraqis. Will it be time for second acts by the militias and Al Qaeda? As it is, there has been an uptick in bombings, including one yesterday in connection with a pullout celebration in Kirkuk that killed 33 Iraqis and injured 92.

Indeed, multi-ethnic Kirkuk is a metaphor for much of what of what ails Iraq.

The northern city was an early success story and had seemed pacified, but the predominant Kurds are pitted against Arabs, Christians and Turkmen. The breakaway government of Kurdistan formally claimed Kirkuk last week, while a referendum to decide control of the city has been repeatedly postponed.

Lest it be forgotten, and most of us moved on from the Mess in Mesopotamia ages ago, more than 350 Iraqis and 10 Americans were killed in June.

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The interesting thing about the pullout on a personal level is that once upon a time it couldn't come too soon for me but now may be coming too soon.

This macabre metamorphosis is known as getting real, which even as a lefty-librul blogger I sometimes am capable of doing. As in coming to the realization, which I did a year or so ago, that although Iraq was the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time, the U.S. has an obligation to try to repair the damage it wrought.

The Surge strategy -- mind you the fourth or fifth strategy since the March 2003 invasion -- was a good start in that direction, although the military gains have not been matched by political gains and it is obvious Prime Minister Al-Maliki is more intent on consolidating power than sharing it, we have an obligation to stay as long as necessary -- albeit with as few troops as possible -- until the worst of the violence can be mitigated.

Not surprisingly, the very Bush-Cheney sycophants who high-fived every false victory from "Mission Accomplished" on are now setting up Barack Obama as the fall guy if Iraq doesn't morph into a stable and democratic country, let alone a reliable U.S. ally. Shameless and shameful. There is a term for this, but it is proctological in nature and not suitable for a family-friendly blog.

It has been axiomatic that the American presence has been deeply destabilizing to Iraqi society but without that presence once the civil wore erupted in earnest the destabilization would have been even worse. And that the national holiday observed yesterday certainly was celebrated with greater enthusiasm by Al-Maliki's Shiites than minority Sunnis.

In the end, I suppose the best that can be hoped for is that the unraveling is not too rapid and that an overlong occupation ends with a whimper and not a bang when the last American boot departs.

That would be as close to victory as the U.S. will ever come.

Top photograph by Karim Kadim/The Associated Press