Monday, October 29, 2012

Parsing The Political Polls & Predicting The Outcome: What Do You Think?

How is it that with one week to go, Barack Obama has a slight lead in about half of the national polls and Mitt Romney has a slight lead in the other half of the national polls?  How is this possible when Obama is going to get most of the African-American and other minority votes, and a big share of the independent women and young adult/college graduate vote?

My view is that Obama voters are generally underrepresented in polls, and nail biting aside, Obama will win the popular vote on November 6 by a few percentage points and win the Electoral College in a landslide.

What is your view?  Do you think that the polls are accurate?  If not, why?  And what is your prediction for the popular and Electoral College vote results?


Wander Woman said...

My prediction is that Romney will win the popular vote but Obama will squeak by on the electoral vote. Wish I could feel stronger one way or the other, but this is going to be a close one. I did predict that Obama would be a one term president when he was about a year in as I am concerned he will be tarred with the Jimmy Carter brush and get blamed for the economy which he didn't create but hasn't (in the eyes of the average American)been able to solve. I think he has gained some points just appearing Presidential during this storm and I hope that you and yours are ok there and not flooded out.
All the best.

Dan said...

I have very little faith in polls, generally speaking. I keep reading that this poll or that poll is so accurate, has predicted the outcome of an election correctly for X amount of years, etc....but I've never been sold on them, and this election cycle is doing nothing to change that. Romney up by 7 here, then 2, Obama loses the female vote but gains the male vote...Rasmussen, well known for its rightie bias, has Obama winning at one point...none of it computes.

Maybe these polls just represent a confused and uncertain electorate, angry about the economy and wanting someone to answer for it, yet correctly detecting that the replacement has redefined the word 'bullshitter', isn't particularly likeable and has no clear stance beyond reflecting whatever view he thinks will go over best at the present moment (though I feel that anyone with political savvy actually does know were he stands, and it's not anywhere near the "Moderate Mitt" we've seen on the debates).

I think the problem is the electorate itself. There are simply too many ignorant voters out there who will make a decision based on the most inane of reasonings (he's white, he's black, he's a "businessman", he's made gas prices higher, etc.). When a poll of OH republicans tells me that nearly half are not sure who was more responsible for getting Bin Laden, and that 15% believe Romney is...well. That tells me everything I need to know.

Ranting aside -- I still believe Obama will win a second term. My best guess is that he'll get the electoral college by a decent amount, and eke out the popular vote. And I certainly hope he does get both, because without the popular vote I fear his ability to get things done will be severely compromised -- he'll be the "illegitimate" president.

On the other hand, I suppose he's used to that by now, right?

Equity Tips said...
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ALINA li said...
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