Iraq I: The Forever War's Dirty Little Secret

A FLIGHT LINE AT BALAD AIR BASE

Lost in the cacophony over when the drawdown of U.S. troops should or will commence is that the U.S. has no intention of altogether leaving Iraq.

It always has been a long-term objective of the Bush administration to have permanent bases in Iraq because of their strategic location between Syria and Jordan to the west, Turkey to the north, Saudia Arabia to the south, and the whole megillah -- Iran -- to the east.

Thomas Ricks reports in the WaPo that the U.S., in fact, plans a permanent post-occupation force of about 50,000 troops.

It’s just a tad impolitic to acknowledge that reality as the last-gasp surge strategy founders and Iraq merrily continues on its downward spiral. To do so, as Matthew Yglesias notes, would be the equivalent of the occupiers rubbing the obvious in the occupieds faces:

"It's preceisely the widespread – and, crucially, accurate – Iraqi perception that U.S. forces aren't just there to help them out and aren't planning on leaving that drives the appeal of both Sunni and Shiite nationalist groups that are opposing us."

Ricks' sources, arguably the best of any reporter covering the Pentagon, tell him that the permanent force would include four major components:

* A mechanized infantry division of about 20,000 soldiers to guarantee the security of the Iraqi government and to assist Iraqi forces.

* A training and advisory force of about 10,000 troops would work with Iraqi military and police units.

* More than 10,000 headquarters and logistical troops, including some civilian contractors.

* A small Special Operations unit to continue the fight against Al Qaeda.

While this plan would seem to run counter to realities on the ground in Iraq, it most definitely runs counter to the Iraq Study Group report, which twice admonished the White House that the U.S. cannot begin to build broad international support for Iraq unless it:

"[R]ejects the notion that the United States seeks to control Iraq's oil, or seeks permanent military bases within Iraq."

And later in the report:

"The President should state that the United States does not seek permanent military bases in Iraq. If the Iraqi government were to request a temporary base or bases, then the U.S. government could consider that request as it would in the case of any other government."

The U.S. has built four "superbases" in Iraq, including the enormous Balad Air Base north of Baghdad. This 15-square-mile minicity is populated by 20,000 troops who seldom see an Iraqi, and has two long runways that handle 27,500 landings and takeoffs a month, second only to London's Heathrow Airport in traffic worldwide.

Because the permanent base issue is so sensitive in Iraq, administration officials have been notably vague when asked about it.

Former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld's typical reply was that such bases are "an interesting question" and the fallback to the cannard that if the Baghdad government wants the U.S. to stick around when the war is over, it would be happy "to assist them for some period over time."

Well, the war ain't over and won't be over anytime soon.