Politix I: Is the Church Lady Going Democratic?

The devil is in the details, and lurking in the bowels of the latest Gallup Poll on the forthcoming mid-term congressional election is a shocking factoid that should have the White House shaking in its cowboy boots:

White religious support for Republicans, once a given, is melting away and people who identify themselves thusly are now as likely to vote for Democrats.

Frank Newport, Gallup's polling director and a frequent source of mine when I was still in the newspaper biz, attempts to suss out this sea change in a (subscription only) analysis that attributes some of the shift to the Mark Foley scandal.

I beg to disagree.

First, the election isn't in the bag until it's in the bag, and Democrats who think they'll take over the House, let alone the Senate, are getting way ahead of themselves.

Second, the impact of the Foley imbroglio and the resulting Dennis "In Denial" Hastert dog-and-pony show on how people will vote has been overestimated.

Third, the Gallup finding, as well as other polls showing that the 12-year Republican hegemony may be ending, are primarily the result of people being worn down by years of excess in Washington, which os typified by the guilty plea today of the first -- but by no means the last -- congressman engulfed in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal.

America is not better off today than it was when George Bush became president or the Republicans took over Congress in 1994. In fact, it is much worse off.