Guest Blog: After Ariel Sharon

Country Bumpkin, an astute observer of all things Middle Eastern, ruminates from New Zealand on the end of the Ariel Sharon Era:

It is the great misfortune of Israel and the Palestinians that Ariel Sharon has reached an age when he might reasonably have been expected to enter a decline, or die. That this has happened at such a crucial juncture in the 100-year-old history of the conflict between the two, makes that misfortune even worse, but it must be borne and overcome.

It is wrong to characterise Sharon as a hawk who has converted into a dove. Rather, he is a hawk who pragmatically measured the truth that in order to be an effective dove, he had to be known as a hawk prepared to punish broken agreements and promises unkept. None of his predecessors were able to achieve this balance, and the worry now is that none of his successors will be able to achieve it either.

In the sine wave of hope and despair which has described the Israel-Palestine argument for four generations, the death of the appalling and destructive Arafat marked a turning point towards a rising curve and better times. The Palestinians have shown tentative signs of impatience with the troubles inflicted upon themselves by their own unruly fringe elements, and are groping towards a form of democracy which is unparalleled in their history (much as is happening in Iraq). The sight of Palestinians and other Muslim nations in the region "celebrating" Sharon's illness is as disgusting as the joy evinced by the same people when the airliners smashed into the World Trade Centre, but since 2001 it has become possible to believe that this sentiment is less mainstream than four years ago.

One needs to recognise that Israel is the only truly democratic country in the region, for now, and that processes of democracy don't always throw up the ideal people to do a particular job of work. These democratic mistakes are self-correcting, given time, and in Sharon the time was auspicious. There can be no certainty that the next Israeli leader will have the right qualities to finish the job, but that's the way it is.

It is necessary to assume that, despite their documented intentions, Palestinians will be satisfied for Israel to continue to exist. It is necessary to assume also that negotiations between the parties can be conducted on the premise that some territorial concessions on the part of Israel, can be exchanged for peaceful coexistence.

But though these are necessary it may not be true, and it may be that the madman Ahmadinejad of Iran more truly reflects Muslim ambitions when he says that Israel must be wiped off the face of the map.

Sharon grasped better than his predecessors that the Palestinians need to be persuaded, once and for all, that Israel will not be going away. Once they in turn have grasped that central fact, anything is possible. Like the good general that Sharon was, his successors will have to understand that from time to time the conditions of battle require a rapid and sometimes fundamental change in tactics.

For the devout, hope and prayer are indicated now. For the politicians -- not to forget those in the USA, the UN and the EU, whose performance until lately has been less than stellar-- steely resolve will be required for a long time to come. The drift towards democracy and the overthrow of tyranny in the region must go on even if they are "encouraged" from outside, thereby to reinforce the desirability of peace among warlike peoples.

Life wasn't meant to be easy!