The Keystone State As Clinton's Last Stand

I had wanted to wait until we got a little closer to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22 to discuss and diss a state in which I have lived, worked and traveled at various times for many years, but the mainstream media will soon be encamping there and I should get in my two cent’s worth before Wolf Blitzer starts interviewing shy Amish folk, brawny coal miners and flatulent cows.

The conventional wisdom is that the Keystone State is tailor made for Hillary Clinton.

This is because it has droves of blue-collar workers, an elderly population second only to Florida and a Democrats-only primary that does not allow same-day registration.

And you can bet that the oft mangled and misattributed observation by political guru James Carville that the state consists of Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west and everything in between is Mississippi will be trotted out time and again.

But the CW has been taking a beating this election year and will again in Pennsylvania, and anyone who thinks that Clinton has the upper hand over Barack Obama is ignoring a few things:

* The substantial number of college students who have made up a big part of Obama's base in other primaries.

* The ongoing trend in the affluent Philadelphia suburbs away from moderate Republicans toward liberal Democrats, which also favors Obama.

* Independent voters have flocked to Obama and there are nearly a million in Pennsylvania. They can change their registration until March 24.

* The Obama campaign's superior grassroots organizing skills.

* The inability of the Clinton campaign, despite some rule-bending from Governor Ed Rendell, to put up a full slate for the state's 188 delegates.

For what it's worth, the most recent polls reflect the trends in other states such as Virginia and Wisconsin that seemed to favor Clinton but handed Obama enormous wins. Her wide lead in Pennsylvania polls has grown slimmer by the week and she now trails by a percentage point or two in a few polls.

Bill Clinton is glad handing in Philadelphia today, Hillary and Obama are expected to begin stumping across the state any day and both campaigns are expected to launch massive TV ad campaigns within the week.

Meanwhile, I took advantage of a mild and sunny day and took myself down into the dairy farm valley near my Eastern Pennsylvania mountain retreat to interview some Holsteins before Wolf could get to them.

These gals agreed to the very last cow that Pennsylvania will be Clinton's last stand and that Obama will prevail by a healthy margin because he's still got the moo-mentum.