The Israel-Hezbollah conflict is giving me a big headache. That, of course, is much better than being in the war zone and being blown to smithereens, but I despair at the all too predictable turn of events of the past 20 days:Hezbollah, unable to move beyond the notion that it is the toughest motherf*cker on the block, provokes Israel by kidnapping two of its soldiers and then retreats back to its bases in Lebanon, which typically are a combination of civilian buildings atop or next to bunkers, ammo dumps and rocket launching sites.
Israel reacts by launching limited air strikes and ground incursions against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
A democratic but weak Lebanon, which only through huge exertions has earlier expelled Syria, is again is caught in the crosshairs of more powerful forces.
The Bush administration sides with Israel.
Kofi Annan and the usual suspects at the United Nations side with Hezbollah.
People who otherwise seem to be sane claim that Hezbollah is a product of Israeli agression.
A number of Arab government condemn Hezbollah.
Hezbollah responds to the Israeli counter attack by launching salvos of missiles from those cheek-to-jowl buildings cum rocket launching sites.
The U.S. refuses to call for a ceasefire but sends Secretary of State Rice to the region for photo ops.
Actor Mel Gibson lets his feelings be known to the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department.
President Bush and his enabler in chief, British PM Blair, meet and exchange solemn looks. Bush declares that the war is "a moment of opportunity" but stops short of actually doing anything.
Israel reacts to the missile attacks by stepping up air strikes. One accidentally hits an apartment block next to a rocket launching site, killing 54 civilians.
The Arab governments that condemned Hezbollah now condemn Israel.
Kofi Annan and the usual suspects at the United Nations accuse Israel of deliberately targeting the civilians while failing to note that the Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israeli cities have done just that.
Iran gloats.
Radical Iraqi elements sing "Zippity do dah, everything's going our way."
Secretary Rices heads to the Middle East for another round of diplomacy, but turns back when the civilian airstrike deaths becomes known. She then resumes her trip. The result: More photo ops.
The Lebanese government proposes sending its sickly army into the war zone.
Hezbollah finds this to be hysterical and hints darkly that it will further destabilize Lebanon once Israel withdraws its troops.
Israel, reacting to the international outcry over the deaths of the 54 civilians, says it will scale back air strikes.
Israel steps up its ground campaign.
This is no international outcry over mounting Israeli deaths.
President Bush, further complicating the situation, says that the U.S. can endorse a ceasefire only if it is linked to conditions that have not been present in the region in modern history.
Israeli ground troops push 15 miles into Lebanon.
The predictability of how all of this is playing out is beyond sad. I had said a couple of weeks ago that the conflagration would be contained. I was wrong.
What makes my headache worse is that the U.S. should be playing the key role in resolving the conflict. Instead it dithers.
Meanwhile, and most ominously, the combatants have nothing to offer each other to break the bloody statemate:
What makes my headache worse is that the U.S. should be playing the key role in resolving the conflict. Instead it dithers.
Meanwhile, and most ominously, the combatants have nothing to offer each other to break the bloody statemate:
Land for peace, coupled with generous financial and material aid, has been an Israeli panacea in past conflicts. It more or less worked in Gaza. It had a chance to work in the West Bank. Not this time.
And Hezbollah, for its part, cannot accept Israel's existence without undercutting its own legitimacy.
(Photo by Sean Smith/The Guardian)
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