Die Lieberdämmerung & Der Blogsophere

Valkyrie bloggers help Good Lamont vanquish Evil Lieberman

In a stunning repudiation that would have been unthinkable only a month ago, Senator Joseph Lieberman was narrowly defeated by Ned Lamont in a Connecticut state primary that became a referendum for the incumbent's failure to challenge President Bush's Iraq war policies.

Lieberman, a three-term senator who had been Vice President Gore's running mate in 2000, lost to the upstart Lamont by a 52-48 percent margin but vowed to run in the November election as an independent.

My son, Cassidy, has followed the race closely and recognized its importance as a bellweather long before I did. Here's an abridged version of his take on the outcome. (You can read his entire analysis here.)

Is this the biggest thing to happen in U.S. politics since 1776? No, of course not. Is it the biggest thing to happen in U.S. politics in a while. Quite possibly. Time will be the ultimate judge.

Anyway, I though I would break this down in terms of what it means in the near and long term.

EFFECT ON THE DEMOCRATS

Probably less than most people think. According to the pundits, a Lamont victory will be terrible for the Democrats and for society. I don't see why. The largest concern is that this result will make the Democrats appear to be an intolerant party where zero dissent is allowed. I beg to differ. Lieberman had the support of some of the biggest names in the party, most notably Bill Clinton. So the idea that this was some sort of witch hunt really falls flat on its face. It was the voters of Connecticut that decided the outcome, not the party elders.

EFFECT ON THE REPUBLICANS

On the flip side, if I were a Republican I would be pretty worried right now. The fact that a virtual unknown defeated a three-term incumbent means that the anti-war message carries a decent amount of weight. Will it carry the same weight in North Carolina as it did in Connecticut? No way. But it will carry some. And that is a reason for Republicans in tight races to be more than a little nervous right now.

REFERENDUM ON THE WAR

I know a lot of people are asking about this, but I can't offer an answer because it would involve too much mirror imaging. I feel that I represent to a fair degree most people's feelings, but I am going to have to take a pass and see if any polls are done on this.

LIEBERMAN THE INDEPENDENT

Can he win as an independent? Just a week or two ago I would have said yes. But now I don't know. The only time I can think of in recent history when the national party abandoned a primary winner was when David Duke of Louisiana won back when Bush Sr. was president. I don't think anything like that will happen this time. With the national party behind him, Lamont shouldn't lose to Lieberman.

WHAT NOW OF LIEBERMAN?

Of course, this all assumes that he does not prevail come November. There is talk of him replacing Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense. He was rumored to be ready to quit in November of 2004, but now that Iraq has turned into utter anarchy, there is no way he does so. That may go against logic, but consider the following: If Rummy leaves, then Bush will have to appoint someone else. That means confirmation hearings. And that means an airing out of every war grievance known to man. Not something the White House would want. And you can decrease the chance of Rumsfeld leaving from 1% to 0.0000001% if the Democrats regain control of the Senate.

THE BLOGGERS

So, did the bloggers steer Lamont to victory? Are they secretly pulling the strings? No and no. If you think bloggers are the end-all, then you are way off.
However, I have a theory about blogs. If you give them too much credit, then they play little or no role. If you disregard them completely, then they will sneak up and bite you in the ass. I believe that Joe Lieberman lost this race more than Ned Lamont won it, and that ultimately the voters decided who they wanted. Yet would Ned Lamont be in the situation he is in right now without the help of bloggers such as Kos, Atrios, Firedoglake and Crooks & Liars, blogs that have a combined readership in the tens of millions? I just don't think so.

* * * * *

So we look ahead to November. And if this primary wasn't enough to get you pumped, then as the Under Armour commercials say, you don't don't have a pulse.

MORE ON DER BLOGOSPHERE

. . . Back to Dad.

A goodly number of pundits are citing the extensive coverage of the Lieberman-Lamont primary race in the mainstream media as an example of the blogosphere "coming of age."

Yes, the extensive (and often knee-jerk and mind numbing) coverage by liberal and antiwar blogs did draw increased attention from The Bigs, as well as increased contributions for Lamont.

But does this mark the moment that bloggers gave up their toothing rings, removed the training wheels from their bicycles and found that their testicles were fully descended?

Of course not.

Did this blogospheric feeding frenzy alter the outcome of the race?

That's tougher to answer, but lke Cassidy I come down on the negative side.

True, many bloggers were de facto campaigners and fundraisers for Lamont, helped make him a viable alternative to Lieberman by giving him badly needed credibility and forcing the MSM to pay more attention to the race as a referendum on the war.

But this was a state contest and I find it difficult to believe that in the end blogs were a major factor in how people voted.

Perhaps someone less sarcastically inclined will look back from their perch in the future and note that the extensive coverage of the race by bloggers was indeed a "coming of age" moment for the blogosphere.

As opposed to:

Bloggers pulling the rug out from under the fake Air National Guard memos that brought down a "60 Minutes" producer and shortened Dan Rather's career?

Or the intensive on scene post-Hurricane Katrina blogging that did much to shame President Bush and the dunces at FEMA.

Or just this past weekend calling out Reuters for a faked photograph of an Israeli airstrike in Beirut.

Or . . .

The blogosphere has grown expodentially in the last five years. Instapundit, a must read then and now, just celebrated it's fifth birthday, and a lot of other good blogs have been around for more than a fortnight. By its sheer weight and the massive egos of many of its practitioners, the blogosphere has become an increasingly influential alternative to the mainstream media, and in the case of many MSM outlets, forced them to begin their own blogs.

If there was a coming of age moment, it was a long while ago. Meanwhile, there's a lot happening out there. Let's get on with it.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS

There are roundups a plenty out there about What It All Means, but one of the best and most comprehensive is Joe Gandelman's over at The Moderate Voice. Check it out.

CYNTHIA TAKES A TUMBLE

In another primary race that wasn't expected to be close, Democrat Cynthia McKinney, Georgia's first African American congresswoman, was defeated in her run-off with Hank Johnson.

McKinney had been expected to coast through the July primary but just squeaked by Johnson, a lawyer and former county commissioner and was forced into a run-off for a seat she has held since 2004.

McKinney has become best known as a 9/11 conspiracy freak, for wailing at the slightest provocation that the world is against her because she's an African-American woman and for pissing in her own hat, most famously in June when she was forced to apologize on the floor of the House over an incident at the Capitol in which she poked a police officer who stopped her at a checkpoint after failing to recognize her.

The kooky behavior and the Capitol incident drew rebukes from both parties and senior Democratic leaders had declined to endorse her re-election campaign, viewing her as a polarizing figure who could hurt party chances in November. As it is, Johnson is expected to beat his Republican challenger in the heavily Democratic district.