I'll Go With the Chimp

The Wall Street Journal reviewed "Expert Political Judgment" by Philip Tetlock and found that "the prognostications of political pundits are about as accurate as a chimp throwing darts."

Said the Journal:

From 1987 to 2003, Prof. Tetlock coaxed 284 political experts of all stripes -- academics, journalists and think-tankers from across the political spectrum -- to make specific, verifiable forecasts. He looked at more than 27,000 predictions in all . . . What he found is that people with expertise in explaining events that have happened aren't very successful at predicting what will happen.