Parsing The Political Polls & Predicting The Outcome: What Do You Think?
How is it that with one week to
go, Barack Obama has a slight lead in about half of the national polls
and Mitt Romney has a slight lead in the other half of the national
polls? How is this possible when Obama is going to get most of the
African-American and other minority votes, and a big share of the
independent women and young adult/college graduate vote?
My view is that Obama voters are generally underrepresented in polls, and
nail biting aside, Obama will win the popular vote on November 6 by a few percentage points and win the Electoral College in a landslide.
What is your view? Do you think that the polls are accurate? If not, why? And what is your prediction for the popular and Electoral College vote results?