Are We There Yet? All About The Real Jobless Rate As Recession Lumbers On

Riddle me this: How can there be an economic recovery without jobs? The answer, of course, is that there can't be, which makes last week's unemployment numbers so bloody bad following guarded optimism that the recession might finally be grinding to an end because of a drop in new claims in May.

The June numbers reflected the loss of another 467,000 jobs, predominately in construction, manufacturing and business and professional services, while the unemployment rate edged up to a supposed 9.5 percent.

But that's not the half of it -- literally.

A more accurate figure may be a forehead-smacking 18.7 percent, which is the Effective Unemployment Rate as calculated by Leo Hindery.

The economist arrived at that rate this way: While there are currently 14,729,000 official unemployed workers, this does not include a combined 15,443,000 workers from the euphemistically named "labor force reserve" (people who have stopped looking for work), the underemployed (who are working part time of necessity), and other marginally attached workers.

This brings the real number of unemployed to 30,172,000.

So riddle me this, as well: At what point does Barack Obama begin sharing the blame for a recession that has resulted in fewer jobs than in May 2000 when the last economic downturn ended but has 12.5 million more workers?

Not yet, but at some point the recession will be his if the free fall isn't checked.

As Vice President Biden helpfully noted over the weekend, the White House certainly knows that, and it is looking increasingly like the seemingly lavish stimulus plan wasn't nearly enough, while it appears that these billions are not getting to where they're needed fast enough.

So were the signs of recovery a few weeks ago a false dawn? Not necessarily, but you know that they say: The darkest hour is just before the dawn.

Chart from Calculated Risk