Why Obama Will Win In Pennsylvania

OBAMA ADDRESSES AFL-CIO CONVENTION IN PHILADELPHIA

Based on an interview with a dairy cow, among others, I predicted about a month ago that Barack Obama would sneak by Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, yet another state seemingly tailor made for the one time shoo-in for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Well, all of the polls show Obama narrowing what had been a 20 percentage point gap to only a few points, or in one case actually leading Clinton, with 19 days to go for what could and arguably should be her death knell.

The Keystone State would seem to be in Clinton's pocket because of several historic advantages that accrue to her. It has droves of blue-collar workers, Catholics, an elderly population second only to Florida and a Democrats-only primary that does not allow same-day registration.

All true, but this conventional wisdom overlooks:

* The substantial number of college students who have made up a big part of Obama's base in other primaries.

* The ongoing trend in the affluent Philadelphia suburbs away from moderate Republicans toward liberal Democrats, which also favors Obama.

* The nearly 900,000 new registered Democrats in large part because of the Obama campaign's superior grassroots organizing skills.

* The inability of the Clinton campaign to put up a full slate for the state's 188 delegates.

To which can be added the possibility that in the last month a goodly number of Pennsylvanians who were on the fence have jumped to the Obama side because they see the mathematical improbability of Clinton having enough delegates to clinch the nomination and want the race to end much sooner than later.

The low ratio of undecided voters in the latest polls (from 13 percent in the PPP to 8 percent in the Quinnipiac to 2 percent in Survey USA) play to this notion. Meanwhile, no amount of mind-numbing television commercials -- and my eyes glaze over and ears close each time the candidates barge into my living room on the edge of metro Philadelphia -- are going to move large numbers of voters at this relatively late date.

Mind you that everything has to break Obama's way for him to eke out a win, most notably those fence sitters.

It may be a reflection of his campaign's own polling, but Obama seems to have sensed the shift in momentum to him in Pennsylvania and is talking past Clinton and at John McCain more and more these days. Meanwhile, Clinton seems to have let up on the personal attacks and shifted back to a more issues-oriented pitch.

It's about time.

Photograph by Tim Shaffer/Reuters