Iowa Post-Mortem III: The Invisible Hand

There was but a single reference to him in the two lead New York Times stories today and scant mention elsewhere, but George Bush was the invisible hand in the Iowa caucuses.

The deeply unpopular president has energized Democrats and nowhere more so than in the campaign of Barack Obama, whose message of change drew in substantial numbers of first-time, young and independent voters in Iowa and convincing caucus victory sets him up for a showdown with the long presumptive frontrunner – Hillary Clinton – next Tuesday in New Hampshire.

Bush’s influence on the Republican side is starkly different. Besides there being less than half as many Republican caucusers last night in Iowa than on the Democratic side, the president will dog the candidates and eventual nominee all the way to the November election, yet few of the GOP wannabes have broken ranks with him for fear of alienating the party’s shrunken base.

As far fetched as it may have seemed until last night, Obama now has a real shot at becoming the Democratic nominee.

That in turn sets up a perverse dynamic for the Republicans: The question will become less whether an African American can be elected president than how far down George Bush will drag the GOP nominee.

Memo to the Republican Party: It's time to panic.