War on Terror II: How Will Osama bin Laden Vote?

There has been much smoke and little fire over the implications of the U.S. mid-term election next Tuesday for Al Qaeda and other terror groups.

Nobody knows for sure, of course, but in a fascinating post at Abu Aardvark, Marc Lynch notes that a posting in Arabic (which he can read) on an Al Qaeda-related site argues that the election is a "pivotal moment" in the terror group's long-term jihad strategy.

Says Lynch:

"Since 9/11 and the Afghan war, al-Qaeda has been pursuing a stage in its long-term strategy which the author [of the posting] calls 'direct combat'. Keeping American in Iraq has been the key to its strategy. America has suffered great losses through this stage, both economic and its people, and many of its allies have already abandoned the fight.

"The next two weeks (giving a clue as to when it was written) will reveal whether al-Qaeda's leadership believes that this stage of direct combat has served its purpose of weakening America sufficiently. If it does, according to the author, al-Qaeda will remain silent, allowing the Democrats to win the Congressional elections and initiating a new phase of the conflict. If it does not (as the author hopes), it will intervene through a bin Laden tape or an attack on an American ally in order to ensure a Republican victory which will keep the Americans trapped in Iraq longer in order to weaken it more before moving to the next stage.

"The author's premise is that al-Qaeda has consistently intervened in American domestic politics where necessary in order to ensure that America stays in Iraq. Whenever America seems like it might withdraw, he writes, Osama bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri pops up to remind Americans that if they do then al-Qaeda will triumph in their wake -- thus goading them to remain. This predictably silences those reasonable voices calling for withdrawal, who are even accused of national treason, and strengthens the voices of stupidity."

AN UPDATE

Lynch reports that Al-Sahab, Al Qaeda's media arm, has released a new video, featuring Abu Yehya al-Libi, but as far as American domestic politics goes, "it is at best a damp squib.

He adds:"While there is still time for a bin Laden or Zawahiri tape to emerge, a tape from the relatively unknown al-Libi which contains no new threats or information is unlikely to have much impact on the American public. If this is the extent of al-Sahab's output before the election, then it would appear that al-Qaeda Central has chosen to sit out the election. Indeed, its release of such a minor tape at this time could be read as a clear message that it could have issued a bigger tape had it wanted to."