Forecasting Stagflation . . .

I like to say that economics is the second oldest profession, but that's disparaging to prostitutes.

Economists, in my experience, are wrong about as often as they are right. People scratch their heads and promptly forget about it when economists goof up and sing their praises and promptly forget about it when they are accurate, which leads me to believe that there is a better way of forecasting what's coming down the old economic pike.

Economist Nouriel Roubini (via Kevin Drum at Political Animal) dispenses with economic mumbo jumbo in a piece on his blog that measures the rate of stagflation according to the number of times the word is mentioned in Nexis. (Stagflation describes a period in which there is high inflation coupled with economic stagnation such as low job growth and rising unemployment.)

President Bush would like us to believe that the U.S. economy is just fine, thank you, but Americans who aren't spending July yachting or taking the airs at their vacation homes know differently. The economy that matters the most -- what I like to call the kitchen table economy -- is hurting, as I recently noted here.

Using Roubini's measurements (with the help of this handy Political Animal chart), it would appear that the U.S. economy is heading into deep doo doo.

But then again, my own Nexis search shows that mentions of Ann Coulter are decreasing, so maybe we're not in as big trouble as I thought.

DOOM AND GLOOM?

A recession could be the last nail in George Bush's coffin. Given the disturbing economic indicators, what is the likelihood of one?

Slate asked Roubini and some other economists for their views, which varied widely.

You know they all can't be right. The question is, are any of them?

More here.

THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS

I yammered a while back about the resistance of Republicans to raising the measly national minimium wage.

Well, the House has passed a bill hiking it from the current $5.15 to $7.25 over three years, but the devil is in the details. Passage is predicated on a Republican favorite -- cutting inheritance taxes on multi-million dollar estates.

Democrats vow to block the bill.