Iraq II: And in the Air

Knight Ridder's Tom Lassiter has an intriguing story out of Baghdad stating that the U.S. has dramatically increased airstrikes in Iraq during the past five months, which may portend a change of tactics against the insurgency that would allow a reduction of ground troops.

Says Lassiter:

A review of military data shows that daily bombing runs and jet-missile launches have increased by more than 50 percent in the past five months, compared with the same period last year. Knight Ridder's statistical findings were reviewed and confirmed by American Air Force officials in the region.

The numbers also show that U.S. forces dropped bombs on more cities during the last five months than they did during the same period a year ago. Airstrikes hit at least 11 cities between Oct. 1, 2004, and Feb. 28, 2005, but were mostly concentrated in and around the western city of Fallujah. A year later, U.S. warplanes struck at least 22 cities during the same months.

The spike in bombings comes at a crucial time for American diplomatic efforts in Iraq. Officials in Washington have said that the situation in Iraq is improving, creating expectations that at least some American troops might be able to withdraw over the next year.

Kiko's House anticipated the upswing in airstrikes way back on December 7 in The Future Iraqi Air War. I said that an airstrike-heavy strategy would considerably increase the risk of civilian casualties, in part because the strikes might be called in by Iraqi ground patrols whose training, let alone their motives given bitter sectarian divisions, might be suspect.

As it is, the reduction or transfer of U.S. troops already is creating a Catch-22 situation. Says Lassiter:

In the town of Samarra, for example, insurgents last month were able to spend several hours rigging explosives in the dome of a Shiite shrine that they later destroyed, in part because American troops patrolled less. The shrine's destruction triggered a week of sectarian violence that killed hundreds. U.S. soldiers interviewed in Samarra three weeks earlier said patrols in the city had been scaled back because the number of troops had been reduced by two-thirds.