Stopping Hillary

With the 2008 presidential election still nearly three years away, a nightmare scenario is emerging for some (and perhaps many) Democrats: Hillary Rodham Clinton prevails in the primaries and is selected at the party's nominating convention, only to be clobbered by John McCain or another Republican.

Political pundit emeritus William Safire, appearing yersterday on NBC's "Meet the Press" with history pundit emeritus Doris Kearns Goodwin, took the long view (as in nearly 160 years of presidential campaign history) in predicting the likely strategy the Dems will use to stop Hillary.

Here's the pertinent exchange:

Safire: But if you want to stop Hillary and you’re a Democrat, what’s the best way to stop a front-runner like that? With the same campaign they used against Henry Clay.

Goodwin: I remember it well.

Safire: Right. You remember. “Clay can’t win.” That was the big slogan. And what with the visceral distrust of Hillary Clinton by most Republicans, and with the distrust of her now by the hard left, the Howard Dean left, the question then becomes, could she possibly win. She could win the nomination, but she would lose the election. That would be the argument.

Political know-it-all and blogger David Wissing provides the historical perspective over at his Hedgehog Report:

In short, Clay first ran for President in 1824, but failed to get within the top three in electoral votes as the election went to the House of Representatives and, of course, John Quincy Adams eventually became President. Then in 1832, Clay ran for President on the National Republican ticket after being Adams Secretary of State but he lost again as Andrew Jackson won re-election in a bitter contest. By 1836, the Whig party had been formed, of which Clay was aligned, but the party never unified behind a single candidate and electoral votes were split among four different Whig candidates and Martin Van Buren was elected President. Then in 1840, Clay tried and failed to get the Whig nomination, losing out to William Henry Harrison who eventually was elected. Harrison died shortly after taking office and John Tyler took over. By 1844, Tyler had left the party and Clay got the Whig nomination against James Polk. Once again, Clay lost in a general election that was supposed to be a sure thing for Clay.

To wrap up, and getting to what Safire was talking about, Clay tried once again in 1848 to get the Whig nomination, but many opponents tagged Clay with the reputation that he could not win a general election. It was something Clay could never shake and in the end, the Whigs decided to go with Zachary Taylor, who they thought had a better chance (and Taylor did win in 1848). By the next election, Clay was dead.